By Philip Pfanstiel
In moments of glee its hard being the naysayer.
Today in these moments of professional naysayerdom its hard being the voice of optimism. I won’t rehash all the coronavirus (COVID-19) news and predictions of doom and gloom. That job is being more than filled by the news, FB, pessimists and now fashionable introverts.
Humor me, if you will, and let me present a counter, optimistic narrative:
What if the worse has ALREADY happened?
What if the Coronavirus / COVID-19 (a new / “novel” strain of the common cold) has already worked its way through America?
Like the kid happily playing on the playground with his bloody knee. Oblivious to any pain UNTIL you point out that his knee is bloody, at which point the pain is unbearable and the theatrics unending.
Many others have pointed out that there is a good chance that the COVID19 has already worked its way through America as a new but relatively modest cold (see screenshot).
But what explains these scary, spikey numbers of “new” corona infections?
Testing Procedures
Confirmation Bias: At this point we seem to only be testing severe cases which is giving a false high mortality rate of 5-7%. South Korea has done more exhaustive testing and their mortality rate is 0.84% – 8-10 times lower and in the range of the routine flu (which has a mortality rate of 0.1%). This is speculation but what if once testing is developed that can test all cases (from mild to severe) AND antibodies (in those who have already recovered) we find that the mortality rate is similar (or even less than) the annual flu (which has a yearly mortality rate of 22,000-55,000).
According to the CDC, there are 370,000 to 670,000 hospitalizations every year in America for the flu and if these were our only patients tested, the 22-55k deaths would give us a mortality rate of 5.9% – 8.2%
Whereas a comprehensive testing of all those who “get” the flu reveals the much lower mortality rate of 0.1%.
Once all the data is in could this Corona Virus (COVID-19) be more in line with the previous 18 COVIDs? Or even the seasonal flu strains?
These are questions others may have the answer for, but I could not find: what is the protocol for testing? Who gets tested? Are we testing everyone, or just the severe cases? From the limited data I’m seeing it seems we are only testing the severe current cases (which makes sense with the limited number of test – but we are taking these false highs and freaking out).
A biologist friend said what we should really be checking for is antibodies showing people have already had and recovered from COVID-19? Do we even have a test for this yet? It seems our priority is so focused on stopping the spread that maybe (optimistic note here) it has already spread and we missed it because it wasn’t that bad.
What if instead of just starting this exponential (and honestly scary) growth curve, we’re at or near the top and about to start the descent. And if what we currently have is the worst that this has got, how bad is it really?
Better Safe …
The mantra response is “Better Safe than Sorry.” Initially this is a compelling argument, but could the cure be worse than the illness?
Patient: “Doctor, I have a really bad headache. What can I possibly do?”
Doctor: “Well, there is this pain alleviation machine invented by a French doctor … Guillotine I think is his name. And best of all, one treatment and you’ll never feel pain again.”
Sometimes the cure is WORSE than the ailment.
Are we allowing FEAR (False Evidenced Appearing Real) to dictate and drive us into a situation where we cut off our nose to spite our face or worse?
Unintended consequences
Not to mention the long term, unintended consequences that few are considering while we race into our hastily TP’ed bunkers.
Could our social distancing, closing of schools, events, sports, travel, etc… bring about an even worse pandemic this summer and fall of depression, suicide, lost jobs, financial struggles and even a worldwide market recession or depression?
Sometimes we learn that embracing fear is not the best medicine. “For the thing which I greatly feared is come upon me, and that which I was afraid of is come unto me.” Job 3:25 (KJV)
Additionally, it is concerning to me how many knee jerk reactions the government is making recently. In place of a well thought out and articulated plan (with supporting data) we have fallen into a looking busy by making arbitrary decisions and giving random orders.
An example of ironic overreactions, recently Colorado shut down all of its ski slopes for a week. Of all the places where social distancing, fresh air and healthy exercise is taking place – we’re going to close the mountains during Spring Break? So that people can be depressed alone, in the dark and indoors. Has anyone heard of Vitamin D, fresh air, exercise? There may have been a very scientific and methodological rationale behind this, but what it came across to me was “we don’t know what to do, so we’re going to just shoot ourselves in the foot and hopes that helps the headache.”
Common Sense Rebuttal
With my own students I explained the “flatten the curve” projections and if we are at the beginning of a pandemic then the mass hysteria and actions are appropriate. But the fact that COVID-19 has been around since November, testing has only recently been implemented in a selected, regional and on a case by case basis, and the season where flus and cold prevail is ending should give us cause to pause and evaluate with a level head.
That being said those who are caring for the elderly, immunocompromised, or severe respiratory ailments should take the same precautions they’d take during any flu season. All of us could use a refresher in basic hygiene and improving our immune systems – so there is some silver lining if you will.
This article is in no way meant to attack anyone, or disdain the experts but since there seem to be too many naysayers, I thought I’d be the optimistic prophet that says “the world isn’t ending, but now is always a good time to get right with God.”
Don’t Agree With Me
Obviously, this is just one person’s opinion and interpretation of the facts that I was aware of and had available. I don’t want anyone to agree with me. Rather, consider this optimistic narrative the next time you overdose on the doom and gloom. Believing the worse about any situation is all too often a self-fulfilling prophecy.
As for me and my house …
Psalm 91: 1-7
1 Whoever
dwells in the shelter of the Most High
will rest
in the shadow of the Almighty.
2 I will say of the Lord, “He is my refuge and my fortress,
my God,
in whom I trust.”
3 Surely he will save you
from the fowler’s snare
and from the deadly pestilence.
4 He will cover you with his feathers,
and under his wings you will find refuge;
his faithfulness will be your shield and rampart.
5 You will not fear the terror of night,
nor the arrow that flies by day,
6 nor the pestilence that stalks in the darkness,
nor the plague that destroys at midday.
7 A thousand may fall at your side,
ten thousand at your right hand,
but it will not come near you.